NCAA Men’s Championships: Can Arizona State Knock Off Cal in Indianapolis? (Team Predictions)

Arizona State's Leon Marchand -- Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

NCAA Men’s Championships: Can Arizona State Knock Off Cal in Indianapolis? (Team Predictions)

Just like last year when Cal outlasted Arizona State to capture its sixth national team title since 2010, we can expect the same kind of battle at this year’s NCAA Men’s Championships in Indianapolis. In fact, earlier this year, the Pac-12 teams had quite a thrilling tune-up: their dual meet in January came down to the final relay, and the result was…A TIE! However, after what ASU did at Pac-12s earlier this month, Swimming World gives its No. 1 nod to the Sun Devils.

Two teams separated by just 52 points at last season’s NCAA Championships will meet again, March 27-30, in Indianapolis with another title on the line. One of those teams is among the sport’s consistent powerhouse teams, while the other team, seemingly dead in 2008 before a surge of fund raising resulted in its reinstatement, had never been in title contention until last year.

The first team is Cal, which has finished among the top-two teams every season since head coach Dave Durden’s third year on the job in 2010. Durden’s groups have captured six national titles, including the last two seasons. Arizona State, on the other hand, has gradually climbed up the national rankings since Coach Bob Bowman took over the program in 2015.

Both programs excel in placing swimmers in position to succeed on the international stage, with two individual medalists from the 2023 World Championships set to compete at the college championships this year. Both teams lose some contributors from last season, but the elite pieces on both squads set up a likely back-and-forth battle.

Arizona State made the most recent move with a dominant performance at the Pac-12 Championships, setting up the Sun Devils with the top seeds in eight out of 13 individual events and four out of five relays. But Cal still has the potential to respond. Who will come out on top in Indianapolis?

Here’s a look at Swimming World’s top-10:

1. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

Last Year: 2nd (430 points)

Coach: Bob Bowman

Hubert Kos of Hungary shows the gold medal after competing in the 200m Backstroke Men Final during the 20th World Aquatics Championships at the Marine Messe Hall A in Fukuoka (Japan), July 28th, 2023.

Hubert Kos — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

Arizona State’s chances of overtaking Cal depend on the performances of stars Leon Marchand and Hubert Kos, both world champions last year. Marchand is the undisputed top male swimmer in the world right now, having earned three gold medals in Fukuoka between both individual medley events plus the 200-meter fly. On the college level last year, the Frenchman clobbered the fastest times in history in the 200-yard IM, 400 IM and 200 breast while also swimming key legs for four Sun Devil relays that finished in the top-three. Marchand even posted the quickest breaststroke splits ever on both medley relays. This year, he will skip the 200 IM and instead swim the 500 free, in which he broke the NCAA record at the Pac-12 Championships.

Kos, who upset Ryan Murphy for the 200-meter back world title last year, broke Murphy’s NCAA record in the yards version of the event earlier this season, and he could win all three of his events at NCAAs, as he is also seeded first in the 100 back and 200 IM. ASU loses the dependable Grant House, but adds Ilya Kharun, who just missed a medal in the 200-meter fly at Worlds and already looks like one of the top butterflyers in the college ranks.

Zalan Sarkany should excel in the distance events, entering the national meet seeded well ahead of the field in the 1650 free, while teammate Daniel Matheson could score as well. The Sun Devils also have a huge contingent in the shorter freestyle events, with sprinters Jack Dolan and Jonny Kulow plus mid-distance stars Julian Hill and Patrick Sammon. Returning multi-event scorers include David Schlicht and Owen McDonald, providing Arizona State with possibly enough depth to get over the top.

2. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Last Year: 1st (482 points)

Coach: Dave Durden

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

This season, Cal loses the three-event top-three scoring punch of Hugo Gonzalez as well as contributors Reece Whitley, Jason Louser and Lucas Henevaux. But Cal does bring back a trio of stars in Jack Alexy, Dare Rose and Destin Lasco, all of whom made their senior-level international debut in 2023. Lasco has been the most successful at the collegiate level thus far, earning consecutive NCAA titles in the 200-yard backstroke while taking second in the 200 IM (in American-record time) and third in the 100 back a season ago.

Alexy, the silver medalist in the 50 and 100-meter free at the 2023 Worlds, will lead Cal in the sprint events along with Bjorn Seeliger. The duo finished 2-3 in the 100-yard event last season. Rose, meanwhile, won bronze in the 100-meter fly at Worlds and looks to bring his short course success up to the level of his long course ability this year. Cal also has Gabriel Jett, second in the 200 free and third in the 200 fly at last year’s NCAAs, as an ace.

Cal has plenty of relay depth, with Liam Bell returning for a fifth year as the likely candidate to handle the breaststroke leg of both medley relays and Matthew Jensen a capable sprinter. Cal also adds Keaton Jones, who won gold in the 200-meter back at the World University Games. Most importantly, the Golden Bears have the confidence that Durden’s teams always show up in March, always bringing their elite form to the NCAA Championships.

3. FLORIDA GATORS

Last Year: 6th (367.5 points)

Coach: Anthony Nesty

Josh Liendo — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Florida has not finished among the top-three teams since Caeleb Dressel’s college days, but the Gators have the pieces to return to that level this season, including the top performers from three national-title winning relays last season. The sprint group is led by Canada’s Josh Liendo, who captured the NCAA title in the 100 free last season and took second in the 50 free. He is already among the top-three performers ever in both events. His co-stars in the sprint events include Macguire McDuff, Adam Chaney and Julian Smith, the same foursome who combined to swim the fastest 400 free relay ever last season.

As for the other relays, Liendo and Smith can provide a more-than-adequate fill-in for the departed Eric Friese, and Smith and Aleksas Savickas provide breaststroke abilities to replace Dillon Hillis. Moreover, a pair of freshmen will play major roles right away at the national meet: backstroker Jonny Marshall and butterflyer Scotty Buff.

But Florida has plenty more than just sprint talent, with Olympian Jake Mitchell poised to score in multiple events plus IMer Mason Lauer, breaststroker Joaquin Gonzalez Pinero and distance freestyler Gio Linscheer all in position for points. If those swimmers can put up strong prelims swims, Florida’s relay talent gives the Gators an extremely high ceiling.

4. NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK

Last Year: 5th (373.5 points)

Coach: Braden Holloway

Aiden Hayes — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

After the Wolfpack finished six points clear of Florida last season, we are picking the Gators to flip the finish, but don’t count out a squad that may be Braden Holloway’s deepest since he arrived in Raleigh. NC State does have some notable losses this season, with Nyls Korstanje forgoing a fifth year, sprinter David Curtiss departing the program, and 1650 free NCAA champion Will Gallant taking an Olympic redshirt. But NC State does have the top returning scorer in two events on the final day, with Ross Dant in the mile (after placing second to Gallant last year) and Aiden Hayes in the 200 fly.

The Wolfpack also bring back Kacper Stokowski, the 2022 winner of the 100 back at NCAAs, while multi-event scorers from last season such as Luke Miller and Arsenio Bustos are positioned to take on bigger roles. A trio of fifth-year swimmers, Hunter Tapp, Noah Henderson and Noah Bowers, bring back significant experience, while Owen Lloyd and James Plage join Dant to create a tough distance trio. Freshman sprinter Jerry Fox could take on a big role, while Sam Hoover steps up as the Wolfpack’s lead breaststroker.

Finally, elite junior-level swimmer Daniel Diehl graduated high school early to join NC State and could make an immediate impact in a variety of individual events and relays.

5. INDIANA HOOSIERS

Last Year: 4th (379 points)

Coach: Ray Looze

Indiana has a strong returning group of swimmers likely to score big individual and relay points at NCAAs, and arguably the country’s best diving group makes the Hoosiers a likely top-five team once again this year. The men who will shine inside the lane lines include fifth-year Brendan Burns, an NCAA champion in the 200 fly in 2022 and in the 100 back last year, as well as butterfly standout Tomer Frankel, a finalist in both butterfly events last year.

Rafael Miroslaw, fresh off making the World Championships final in the 200-meter free in early 2024, is in the midst of one of his best seasons, while Josh Matheny was a Worlds finalist in the 100 and 200-meter breast last year. He is a likely A-finalist in both breaststroke distances, while Finn Brooks, Jassen Yep and Maxwell Reich could also provide a boost in that stroke.

Meanwhile, Indiana loses last year’s 3-meter diving champion and 1-meter runner-up Andrew Capobianco, but Carson Tyler and Quentin Henninger return. Tyler was the winner on platform last season and fourth on three-meter, while Henninger took third on both 3-meter and platform.

6. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

Last Year: 7th (216.5 points)

Coach: Matt Kredich

Jordan Crooks — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Tennessee’s excellence in the sprint events is too much to overlook when considering how the teams might line up at the national meet. The Volunteers placed seventh last year with only four individual top-eight swims—three of them by Jordan Crooks—and two diving top-eight finishes from Bryden Hattie. Crooks was a monster in 2023, winning the national title in the 50 free after becoming only the second man in history to break 18 and taking second in the 100 free. Gui Caribe joined him as an A-finalist in the 50 while placing ninth in the 100 free and joining with Crooks and Bjoern Kammann as centerpieces of four top-eight relays.

Tennessee should also get a boost from Martin Espernberger, a 200 fly B-finalist last year who recently won World Championships bronze in the meters version of the event. Nick Simons returns after making a pair of backstroke consolation finals as a freshman, and in diving, Hattie (second on platform, sixth on 3-meter) is joined by 2023 consolation finalist Nick Stone.

7. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Last Year: 3rd (384 points)

Coach: Eddie Reese

Jake Foster — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

The last time Texas finished outside of the top-three at the NCAA Championships was 2007. In the span since, the Longhorns have captured six national titles and seven runner-up finishes, but the last team for legendary head coach Eddie Reese, set to retire after this year’s Olympic Trials, lacks much of its usual punch. Carson Foster and Caspar Corbeau both turned professional, while David Johnston is redshirting, and fifth-year swimmers such as Danny Krueger exhausted their eligibility.

That’s not to say the Longhorns are hopeless: Luke Hobson is the defending national champion in the 200 and 500 free while Jake Foster, Carson’s older brother, is having one of the best seasons of his career as a fifth-year senior, with multiple top-eight finishes between the breaststroke events likely. Freestyler Coby Carrozza has been a World Championships relay swimmer in his career, while freshman Will Modglin, Swimming World’s High School Swimmer of the Year the last two years, leads a star class that includes the versatile Nate Germonprez, sprinter Camden Taylor and breaststrokers Will Scholtz and Brayden Taivassalo.

Distance swimmer Alec Enyeart and butterflyer Sam Artmann were both top-16 finishers last year. Texas will also get plenty of diving points, with Noah Duperre scoring in three events last year plus Nick Harris and Brendan McCourt in two each, but the Longhorns won’t have the sprints or relays to move much higher than seventh.

8. STANFORD CARDINAL

Last Year: 8th (143.5 points)

Coach: Dan Schemmel

Sprint standout Andrei Minakov, the 2022 NCAA champion in the 100 fly, sat out the fall season, but has returned to college competition in time to boost Stanford toward a likely return trip to the top-10. Minakov only scored individually in the 100 fly last season, but at his best, he is a triple A-final scorer and relay stud capable of lifting his team in the standings. He will be joined by Ron Polonsky, fifth in the 200 IM and a B-finalist in the 100 breast last season, while Zhier Fan provides a second star in the breaststroke races.

Aaron Sequeira and Luke Maurer are both returning B-finalists from last season, while Luke’s younger brother, Rex Maurer, figures to impact the standings right away after he posted NCAA-scoring-worthy times in the 500 free, 400 IM and 200 back at midseason. Stanford also returns Jack Ryan, the third-place finisher in 1-meter diving last season.

9. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Last Year: 12th (96 points)

Coach: Neil Versfeld

Jake Magahey — Photo Courtesy: Luke Allen/Auburn Tigers

Georgia has a really strong chance at reaching the top-10 for the first time since the retirement of longtime head coach Jack Bauerle in 2022. The Bulldogs lack much relay speed relative to other programs, but a huge contingent of fifth-years will bring needed experience to the national meet. Ian Grum was an A-finalist in the 400 IM and 200 back last season, while Bradley Dunham returns after making the consolation heats in both backstroke events. Dillon Downing and Zach Hils are both using their bonus years with the expectation to perform well on relays in March.

However, Georgia’s top swimmer remains Jake Magahey, a senior who has finished top-three in the 500 free at all of his NCAA Championships while also taking third in the 1650 free last season. Ruard van Renen, a transfer from Southern Illinois, has looked strong in the backstroke events, as has freshman Tomas Koski in mid-distance freestyle and Reese Branzell in the sprints.

10. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

Last Year: 9th (133 points)

Coach: Sergio Lopez Miro

The last few spots in the top-10 always come down to which team performs best at the big meet, so why not go with the team that brings back five individual A-final swims from last year? Three of those leading swims belonged to Youssef Ramadan, the national champion in the 100 fly who also took fifth in the 50 free and eighth in the 100 free. Meanwhile, Carles Coll Marti made the top heat in both the 200 IM and 200 breaststroke.

The Hokies should also get plenty of relay points, with Ramadan, Coll Marti, Luis Dominguez, Will Hayon and Mario Molla Yanes among the possible contributors to top-eight squads. AJ Pouch is another potential breaststroke scorer along with Coll Marti.

OTHERS TO WATCH

OHIO STATE (last year: 11th, 112 points; Coach Bill Dorenkott) is returning three divers with a combined seven scoring performances last year, giving the Buckeyes a real chance at the top-10, while Ruslan Gaziev highlights the sprint and relay events, and Charlie Clark is always strong in the distance events. TEXAS A&M (14th/80; Coach Jay Holmes) also has a strong diving contingent consisting of returning scorers Victor Povzner, Allen Bottego and Rhett Hensley, while Baylor Nelson continues to take steps after swimming a relay for the U.S. men at last year’s World Championships.

AUBURN (10th/127; Coach Ryan Wochomurka) returned to the top-10 last year for the first time since Wochomurka took over in 2021-22, and we expect big performances from Reid Mikuta as well as brothers Nate and Aidan Stoffle. VIRGINIA (15th/78; Coach Todd DeSorbo) should have some top-end scoring from breaststroker Noah Nichols, backstroker Jack Aikins and a sprint group let by Matt Brownstead, while NOTRE DAME (18th/62; Coach Chris Lindauer) gets a huge boost from the emergence of Chris Guiliano, a sprinter who also qualified for Worlds last year. The Fighting Irish placed second at the ACC Championships, with Guiliano and fifth-year transfer Abdelrahman Elaraby leading the team to a 400 free relay win. Add in sophomore backstroker Tommy Janton, and the Irish have an outside shot to crack the top-10.

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